Ian Dobbs
Head of Wholesale & Carbon Markets Expert, Tasman Environmental Markets
Ian brings more than 25 years of trading and risk-management experience across financial markets in the UK, South Africa and New Zealand — from running bank trading books in bonds, rates and currencies to trading futures on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange and co-founding a derivatives trading firm. Having navigated the Asian Currency Crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis, Ian now applies that hard-won market insight to carbon, leading TEM's wholesale trading desk and providing clients with a front-row view of the forces shaping global carbon markets. Read more about Ian.
Australian Carbon Credit Units · Market Update
ACCU Prices Drift as Safeguard Demand Flattens Out
The ACCU market currently feels a bit lethargic during what has traditionally been a much busier time of the year. Prices peaked at $39.25 just over a month ago before slipping all the way back to $38.00. The subsequent bounce off $38.00 has only managed to reach $38.50 before running out of steam.
Volumes are also somewhat lower during this period than in previous years, which reinforces the view that Safeguard buying is now spread throughout the year rather than concentrated in the August–November window. This was evident at the start of 2026, when a consistent bid in the market pushed prices to a high of $37.80 in late January — usually a very quiet time of year for ACCUs.
Market sentiment has also not been helped by recent comments from Opposition Leader Angus Taylor. While political uncertainty is a feature of carbon markets in general, it is less than ideal for the Coalition to suggest they would scrap the entire Safeguard system within 30 days of taking office.
Setting aside any potential changes to the Safeguard system arising from the review currently underway or the next election in 2028, the long-term outlook for ACCU prices remains positive. In the short term, however, an oversupply of available credits continues to cap near-term price gains. The market could well retest the $39.00 level in the coming weeks if buying picks up, but the closer we get to December, the less likely we are to see fresh cycle highs.
This information has been prepared by Tasman Environmental Markets Australia Pty Ltd (TEM), a corporate authorised representative (ABN 97 659 245 011, CAR 001297708) of TEM Financial Services Pty Limited (ABN 58 142 268 479, AFSL 430036). This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice or take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs.