Ian Dobbs
Head of Wholesale & Carbon Markets Expert, Tasman Environmental Markets
Ian brings more than 25 years of trading and risk-management experience across financial markets in the UK, South Africa and New Zealand — from running bank trading books in bonds, rates and currencies to trading futures on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange and co-founding a derivatives trading firm. Having navigated the Asian Currency Crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis, Ian now applies that hard-won market insight to carbon, leading TEM’s wholesale trading desk and providing clients with a front-row view of the forces shaping global carbon markets. Read more about Ian.
Australian Carbon Credit Units · Market Data
Q3 2026 Carbon Market Report: Record ACCU Supply, Weak Voluntary Demand
The Clean Energy Regulator has released the Q3 2026 Quarterly Carbon Market Report (QCMR) data workbook. The full report isn’t due until mid-December, but the workbook is published early so the market has timely access to the data. Below are the key takeaways on the state of the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) market.
Supply hits a record
- Q3 2026 issuance was 8.24m ACCUs, the highest quarter on record. That beats the previous high of 7.0m in Q3 2023 and is up 51% on Q3 2025.
- Year-to-date issuance is 19.1m. That is up 28% on the same period last year and already 88% of full-year 2025 issuance (21.7m).
Safeguard surrenders dominate demand
- Total compliance use in 2026 is 11.5m units, up from 10.1m in 2025. Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) make up a growing share (22%, up from 14%).
Voluntary demand is weak
- Non-Safeguard cancellations are 0.72m year-to-date. That is down 15% on last year and well below the 2023 peak of 1.73m.
The surplus is building in Safeguard companies’ accounts
- Total ACCU holdings reached 68.9m, up 7.7m in the quarter and 12.1m year on year.
- Safeguard companies hold 43.9m (64%), up 10.9m on last year. Adding related companies (2.4m) and SMCs (10.1m) gives roughly 56m units of ACCUs and SMCs combined. That is about five years of current annual compliance use.
- Intermediaries hold 8.6m, down from 10.8m a year ago.
- Project developers’ holdings rose to 11.1m (+2.2m).
Fewer new projects are being registered
- Registrations are 207 year-to-date, down 39% on 2025 (339). This points to slower growth in supply further out.
Q3 2026 on the Clean Energy Regulator’s registry at a glanceQ3 2026 Carbon Market Report insights
What this means for prices
The data reinforces the market dynamics already well established. In the short term, supply is ample. Record issuance, falling voluntary demand, a growing pool of SMCs and the large stockpile already held by Safeguard companies should keep prices contained for the next couple of years.
The longer-term picture remains more favourable. Safeguard buyers are holding units ahead of tightening baselines rather than reselling them, intermediaries are holding less, and project registrations are falling. Over time, this should see the market tighten, which will support prices.
This information has been prepared by Tasman Environmental Markets Australia Pty Ltd (TEM), a corporate authorised representative (ABN 97 659 245 011, CAR 001297708) of TEM Financial Services Pty Limited (ABN 58 142 268 479, AFSL 430036). This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice or take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs.
Previous editions
Australian Carbon Credit Units – Technical Analysis
ACCU Prices Test $38 Trendline Support.
14 October 2026
In my blog post a couple of weeks ago I included the attached chart, but I didn’t give any significant commentary around the importance, at least in respect to near-term price action, to the trendline drawn on that chart which comes in around the 38.00 level.
Spot ACCU prices have pulled back over the past fortnight and are now sitting right on an important technical level. Over recent days the generic spot price traded at $38.00 and currently sits at $38.10, which puts it squarely on the rising trendline that has underpinned the market since early 2025.
Australian Carbon Credit Units · Market Update
ACCU Prices Drift as Safeguard Demand Flattens Out
28 September 2026
The ACCU market currently feels a bit lethargic during what has traditionally been a much busier time of the year. Prices peaked at $39.25 just over a month ago before slipping all the way back to $38.00. The subsequent bounce off $38.00 has only managed to reach $38.50 before running out of steam.
Read editionAVIATION CARBON · CORSIA CP1
Has the CORSIA market turned a corner?
15 September 2026
Read editionNew Zealand Market · Pre-election holding pattern
NZU pricing reflects mounting political risk ahead of New Zealand’s November election.
1 September 2026
Read editionSeasonal bid returns as ACCUs eye $40
$40 in sight as ACCUs hit an 18-month high
18 August 2026
Over the past few weeks the ACCU market has been quietly going about its business, making small but consistent gains, which saw HIR ACCUs trade at $39.30 on Friday, the highest level since early December 2024. Given we are only at the start of the seasonal buying window (roughly August & November), there is plenty of opportunity for the market to rally further. A test of $40 is looking more likely than ever.
Read editionAustralian Carbon Credit Units – Premium Methodologies
Will Australian Carbon Credit Units Methodology Spreads Narrow? A Long-Term Market Outlook
3 August 2026
The “Generic” ACCU market, currently trading around $37.90, accounts for the vast majority of liquidity and trading. That’s unsurprising, given it’s where most Safeguard entities source their ACCUs for compliance purposes. About 10 cents higher, HIR (Human Induced Regeneration) ACCUs have traded for much of the past year. Above that sits a range of other methodologies currently priced up toward $60, and sometimes higher still. This article focuses on the long-term outlook for these “premium” ACCUs, which generally trade at a spread of $15-$20 above generics.
Read editionVoluntary Carbon Market · REDD+
High End of REDD+ Market Set for Volatility
21 July 2026
Over the past 9–12 months, the REDD+ sector has experienced a significant divergence in price trends. A relatively small group of well-rated, well-known projects has enjoyed price stability or even appreciation, while the broader REDD+ market has struggled with inconsistent buyer interest and declining prices.
Read edition