Ian Dobbs
Head of Wholesale & Carbon Markets Expert, Tasman Environmental Markets
Ian brings more than 25 years of trading and risk-management experience across financial markets in the UK, South Africa and New Zealand — from running bank trading books in bonds, rates and currencies to trading futures on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange and co-founding a derivatives trading firm. Having navigated the Asian Currency Crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis, Ian now applies that hard-won market insight to carbon, leading TEM’s wholesale trading desk and providing clients with a front-row view of the forces shaping global carbon markets. Read more about Ian.
Australian Carbon Credit Units · Market Update
ACCU Prices Drift as Safeguard Demand Flattens Out
The ACCU market currently feels a bit lethargic during what has traditionally been a much busier time of the year. Prices peaked at $39.25 just over a month ago before slipping all the way back to $38.00. The subsequent bounce off $38.00 has only managed to reach $38.50 before running out of steam.
Volumes are also somewhat lower during this period than in previous years, which reinforces the view that Safeguard buying is now spread throughout the year rather than concentrated in the August–November window. This was evident at the start of 2026, when a consistent bid in the market pushed prices to a high of $37.80 in late January — usually a very quiet time of year for ACCUs.
Market sentiment has also not been helped by recent comments from Opposition Leader Angus Taylor. While political uncertainty is a feature of carbon markets in general, it is less than ideal for the Coalition to suggest they would scrap the entire Safeguard system within 30 days of taking office.
Setting aside any potential changes to the Safeguard system arising from the review currently underway or the next election in 2028, the long-term outlook for ACCU prices remains positive. In the short term, however, an oversupply of available credits continues to cap near-term price gains. The market could well retest the $39.00 level in the coming weeks if buying picks up, but the closer we get to December, the less likely we are to see fresh cycle highs.
This information has been prepared by Tasman Environmental Markets Australia Pty Ltd (TEM), a corporate authorised representative (ABN 97 659 245 011, CAR 001297708) of TEM Financial Services Pty Limited (ABN 58 142 268 479, AFSL 430036). This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice or take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs.
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Read editionSeasonal bid returns as ACCUs eye $40
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Over the past few weeks the ACCU market has been quietly going about its business, making small but consistent gains, which saw HIR ACCUs trade at $39.30 on Friday, the highest level since early December 2024. Given we are only at the start of the seasonal buying window (roughly August & November), there is plenty of opportunity for the market to rally further. A test of $40 is looking more likely than ever.
Read editionAustralian Carbon Credit Units – Premium Methodologies
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3 August 2026
The “Generic” ACCU market, currently trading around $37.90, accounts for the vast majority of liquidity and trading. That’s unsurprising, given it’s where most Safeguard entities source their ACCUs for compliance purposes. About 10 cents higher, HIR (Human Induced Regeneration) ACCUs have traded for much of the past year. Above that sits a range of other methodologies currently priced up toward $60, and sometimes higher still. This article focuses on the long-term outlook for these “premium” ACCUs, which generally trade at a spread of $15-$20 above generics.
Read editionVoluntary Carbon Market · REDD+
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Over the past 9–12 months, the REDD+ sector has experienced a significant divergence in price trends. A relatively small group of well-rated, well-known projects has enjoyed price stability or even appreciation, while the broader REDD+ market has struggled with inconsistent buyer interest and declining prices.
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