What's moving the carbon market?

New Zealand Market · Pre-election holding pattern

NZU pricing reflects mounting political risk ahead of New Zealand’s November election.

By Ian Dobbs, Head of Wholesale · 1 September 2026

NZU prices traded into the low $30s at the start of this year after a series of Government announcements which market participants view as a net weakening of ambition. Those decisions, which included decoupling NZ ETS settings from New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, softening the 2050 biogenic methane target, and confirming no agricultural emissions pricing, triggered a slide that took the spot price from $56 down to around $32.

Since that low the market has slowly been recovering, and it regained a foothold above $50 in May of this year, but that recovery now looks to have stalled and a major contributor is the impending political risk. An upcoming election, scheduled for 7th November this year, has increased uncertainty over the next government’s climate stance, and markets don’t like uncertainty. Recent polling indicates a tight contest, with the possibility of a change that could reverse or reinforce the current trajectory.

On the Government side, recent moves include retaining largely status-quo auction volumes for 2026–2030, after briefly considering cancelling auctions to support prices. Officials have also been directed to develop additional abatement options for future emissions budgets, with a report back timed after the election.

Opposition parties have signalled stronger commitment to existing emissions budgets and Paris-aligned settings, though detailed NZU specific policies remain limited.

As a result, NZU prices, which were trading as high as $56.75 in late July, have now fallen back toward the key $50 level. Until the election clarifies the direction of travel, participants are likely to remain hesitant, keeping liquidity thin and prices under pressure.