Ian Dobbs
Head of Wholesale & Carbon Markets Expert, Tasman Environmental Markets
Ian brings more than 25 years of trading and risk-management experience across financial markets in the UK, South Africa and New Zealand — from running bank trading books in bonds, rates and currencies to trading futures on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange and co-founding a derivatives trading firm. Having navigated the Asian Currency Crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis, Ian now applies that hard-won market insight to carbon, leading TEM’s wholesale trading desk and providing clients with a front-row view of the forces shaping global carbon markets. Read more about Ian.
Australian Carbon Credit Units · Technical Analysis
ACCU Prices Test $38 Trendline Support.
In my blog post a couple of weeks ago I included the attached chart, but I didn’t give any significant commentary around the importance, at least in respect to near-term price action, to the trendline drawn on that chart which comes in around the 38.00 level.
Spot ACCU prices have pulled back over the past fortnight and are now sitting right on an important technical level. Over recent days the generic spot price traded at $38.00 and currently sits at $38.10, which puts it squarely on the rising trendline that has underpinned the market since early 2025.
What is a trendline, and why does it matter?
A trendline is a straight line drawn on a price chart that connects a series of rising lows. In the ACCU market, that line starts at the March 2025 low of around $32.60 and runs through the dips of late 2025 and early 2026. Each time the price pulled back to this line, buyers stepped in to support the market and the uptrend resumed.
Trendlines work partly because many market participants watch them. When prices fall back to a well-established line, buyers often see value and sellers become less willing to sell lower. That shared expectation tends to create a “support zone” where demand picks up and prices stabilise. The more times a line has held, the more significant it is considered to be.
What happens if it breaks?
Support is not a guarantee. If prices close decisively below $38.00, it would be a bearish signal and suggest the steady uptrend of the past 18 months is losing momentum. I would expect increased selling on a sustained break below this support level. A bearish signal, in a market that is currently oversupplied, is likely going to result in a decent move lower.
In that scenario, the next areas to watch are the March 2026 lows around $36.15 and the late-2025 lows near $35.55.
The bottom line
The $38.00 level is a line in the sand for the ACCU market when considering short to medium term price action. Holding here would confirm the uptrend remains intact, while a clear break would open the door to a deeper correction. Market participants should watch this level closely over the coming days.
This information has been prepared by Tasman Environmental Markets Australia Pty Ltd (TEM), a corporate authorised representative (ABN 97 659 245 011, CAR 001297708) of TEM Financial Services Pty Limited (ABN 58 142 268 479, AFSL 430036). This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice or take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs.
Previous editions
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Over the past few weeks the ACCU market has been quietly going about its business, making small but consistent gains, which saw HIR ACCUs trade at $39.30 on Friday, the highest level since early December 2024. Given we are only at the start of the seasonal buying window (roughly August & November), there is plenty of opportunity for the market to rally further. A test of $40 is looking more likely than ever.
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3 August 2026
The “Generic” ACCU market, currently trading around $37.90, accounts for the vast majority of liquidity and trading. That’s unsurprising, given it’s where most Safeguard entities source their ACCUs for compliance purposes. About 10 cents higher, HIR (Human Induced Regeneration) ACCUs have traded for much of the past year. Above that sits a range of other methodologies currently priced up toward $60, and sometimes higher still. This article focuses on the long-term outlook for these “premium” ACCUs, which generally trade at a spread of $15-$20 above generics.
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Over the past 9–12 months, the REDD+ sector has experienced a significant divergence in price trends. A relatively small group of well-rated, well-known projects has enjoyed price stability or even appreciation, while the broader REDD+ market has struggled with inconsistent buyer interest and declining prices.
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