Ian Dobbs
Head of Wholesale & Carbon Markets Expert, Tasman Environmental Markets
Ian brings more than 25 years of trading and risk-management experience across financial markets in the UK, South Africa and New Zealand — from running bank trading books in bonds, rates and currencies to trading futures on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange and co-founding a derivatives trading firm. Having navigated the Asian Currency Crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis, Ian now applies that hard-won market insight to carbon, leading TEM's wholesale trading desk and providing clients with a front-row view of the forces shaping global carbon markets. Read more about Ian.
Australian Carbon Credit Units · Price Outlook
ACCU Prices Rangebound as Natural Sellers Cap Rallies
ACCUs have traded a tight $37.75–$38.25 range since October on light volumes. Why rallies look capped into year-end and premium spreads face 2027 pressure.
ACCU market stuck in a tight range
The ACCU’s market has been trading within a tight $0.50 range since the beginning of October. $37.75 to $38.25 has broadly contained the market for generic ACCU’s, with HIR’s 5 -10 cents above that. The break below support at $38.00 happened in the second half of October but there was little in the way of follow through selling and as such a few bids in the $37.75 area managed to contain the downside. The market was then very quiet until late in Oct when we saw a small flurry of activity as a handful of buyers all competed to pay offers up to the $38.20 level. That buying quickly dried up however and prices drifted back to $38.00 where they currently sit.
Traded volumes have also been light with October totals significantly down on both the month prior and the same month last year. It is becoming increasingly unlikely we will see any further periods of significant price strength this year. There are plenty of natural sellers out there who will offer their volume into any uptick in prices and that is going to keep a lid on any topside activity as we draw ever closer to the end of this calendar year.
Premium methodology spreads under pressure
Premium methodology spreads also remain under significant pressure with plenty of volume available across Environmental Plantings, Plantation Forestry, and Indigenous Savanna Burning. There simply aren’t enough voluntary buyers for the volume of credits that are starting to flow into the market from these premium methodologies. That pressure is only going to increase next year, and I would not be surprised to see major spread contraction during 2027.
This information has been prepared by Tasman Environmental Markets Australia Pty Ltd (TEM), a corporate authorised representative (ABN 97 659 245 011, CAR 001297708) of TEM Financial Services Pty Limited (ABN 58 142 268 479, AFSL 430036). This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice or take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs.