Ian Dobbs
Head of Wholesale & Carbon Markets Expert, Tasman Environmental Markets
Ian brings more than 25 years of trading and risk-management experience across financial markets in the UK, South Africa and New Zealand — from running bank trading books in bonds, rates and currencies to trading futures on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange and co-founding a derivatives trading firm. Having navigated the Asian Currency Crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis, Ian now applies that hard-won market insight to carbon, leading TEM's wholesale trading desk and providing clients with a front-row view of the forces shaping global carbon markets. Read more about Ian.
Seasonal bid returns as ACCUs eye $40
$40 in sight as ACCUs hit an 18-month high
Over the past few weeks the ACCU market has been quietly going about its business, making small but consistent gains, which saw HIR ACCUs trade at $39.30 on Friday, the highest level since early December 2024. Given we are only at the start of the seasonal buying window (roughly August & November), there is plenty of opportunity for the market to rally further. A test of $40 is looking more likely than ever.
Spot ACCU Price – Generic · May 2023 to July 2026, A$ per unit.
The ACCU market has felt a little stronger than normal for most of this year. This is very likely the result of safeguard buyers bringing forward a portion of their seasonal demand into earlier months, which supported prices in what have traditionally been weaker periods for ACCUs. As a result, ACCU prices have remained above $37.00 for most of 2026 so far, with only a short-lived dip to just under $36.50 during an eight-week period from mid-February to mid-April. By mid-June a consistent bid was supporting the market around the $37.70 level, providing a solid platform from which the current rally was launched. $40 is a key psychological level and should provide significant resistance if the market continues to make gains over the coming weeks. Above $40 and it’s blue-sky sailing all the way to the 2024 high around $42.65, although that level still looks a bit of a stretch given the market remains well supplied.
With demand expected to remain elevated over the next 8–10 weeks we should be in for a very interesting period of price action in ACCUs. This period will also provide a great opportunity for developers and project proponents to liquidate supply at what are likely to be attractive prices over the short to medium term.
This information has been prepared by Tasman Environmental Markets Australia Pty Ltd (TEM), a corporate authorised representative (ABN 97 659 245 011, CAR 001297708) of TEM Financial Services Pty Limited (ABN 58 142 268 479, AFSL 430036). This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice or take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs.